A matter of principles
by
Max Wigbout
Statistics New Zealand

The world of bridge players has various principles. The principle of restricted choice was first suggested in the late fifties, but there is still quite a bit of controversy surrounding this.

For example recently a letter to the Editor of 'New Zealand Bridge' called this principle the Law of Demented Choice. Some readers responded supporting the principle, but their arguments were not convincing, despite one including a simulation exercise. The bridge and statistical literature seems to contain no clear explanation for the principle. However, I think it can be explained relatively easy by the Bayesian rule for the probability of causes and attempt to show this. It also applies to another bridge principle, that of vacant places. To follow the talk, it is not necessary to know anything about bridge, although afterwards you might want to learn more about it and about the species that are bridge players.

Date received: August 16, 2000

Copyright © 2000 by the author(s). The author(s) of this document and the organizers of the conference have granted their consent to include this abstract in Atlas Conferences Inc. Document # cadt-20.