Tree-Ring Records of Hydrometeorological Variability From Eastern Turkey
by
Rosanne D'Arrigo
Tree-Ring Lab, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY USA
Coauthors: H. Nuzhet Dalfes (Istanbul Technical University), Heidi Cullen (IRI, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory), Gordon Jacoby (TRL, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory), Baris Onol (Istanbul Technical University)

Precipitation captured by the Taurus Mountains and Anatolian Highlands of Turkey, the headwater regions for the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, is a dominant source of water supply for the Middle East. As a result, information on long-term interannual to multi-decadal variations in precipitation and streamflow are of considerable interest, especially when considering the massive hydropower and irrigation developments undertaken as measures towards sustainability. Information on the variability of water resources in this region has implications for the planning and management of these resources and, as a result, the political and economic stability of Turkey and its neighbors. To better understand the nature of drought and flood extremes, we need to evaluate climate variability on time scales of decades to centuries. Instrumental records of precipitation and streamflow for the Middle East, incuding Turkey, are limited to only a few decades in many areas. To help extend these data we have recently finalized several tree-ring width chronologies for eastern Turkey, a region of very sparse paleoclimatic information. One chronology, of scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), dates from 1583-1999 and is from the Kilickaya region northeast of Erzurum. Another record, from Zigana Pass, also of scots pine, dates from 1791-1999. These two records are significantly and positively correlated with monthly precipitation for central and eastern Turkey during the spring and summer months concurrent with radial growth. The new chronologies have been added to a data set of other tree-ring records developed by P. Kuniholm to generate an improved statistically-verified reconstruction of precipitation for Turkey. This reconstruction shows correspondence with indices of Tigris-Euphrates streamflow, historical records of Turkish drought, and the North Atlantic Oscillation, recently shown to be a significant factor influencing Turkish climate.

Date received: February 28, 2001

Copyright © 2001 by the author(s). The author(s) of this document and the organizers of the conference have granted their consent to include this abstract in Atlas Conferences Inc. Document # cagc-05.