Match probabilities in admixed population
by
Bonnie Law
University of Auckland
Coauthors: Chris M. Triggs (University of Auckland), John S. Buckleton (ESR)

Current strategies for the interpretation of DNA evidence are based on the population substructure model. We present an alternative population genetics model based on admixture where a significant proportion of individuals in the population have ancestors from more than one ancestral population. The genotype frequency can be evaluated conditional on the individual’s family history and the posterior density of observing the genotype at the crime scene can be estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. This posterior predictive probability is equivalent to the match probability commonly used in forensic case work. We assess the effect of admixture on the calculation of match probabilities and compare the results with existing methodologies using simulation.

Date received: August 31, 2001

Copyright © 2001 by the author(s). The author(s) of this document and the organizers of the conference have granted their consent to include this abstract in Atlas Conferences Inc. Document # cahg-79.