The impact of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in seasonal rainfall of the Eastern Cape Province in South Africa.
by
S.P Duma
Dept. of Geography, University of Fort Hare, Private Bag x 1314, Alice 5700, South Africa

The variability and changing of climate of the Eastern Cape rainfall is identified through analysis of six stations with long term data of 100 years. Wet and dry seasons were associated with extreme events such as floods, tornadoes, drought with adverse effects in the East province are identified. Post- lag correlation have been identified in summer rainfall in relation with El NiÑo Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The evidence is examined by correlation through six stations with more emphasis in seasonal rainfall variation and El NiÑo months over 100 years. Correlations are specifically significant across the centres of the region following warm events. Findings have shown a marked severity of ENSO both temporarily and spatially on rainfall distribution over six sites. The rainfall trends have shown a rainfall intensity decrease from central area to northern area in conjunction with strong EL NiÑo years in contrast with other pattern in other years. The results may be due to the proximity to the sea, topography and aspect. The impact of El NiÑo is also examined through vegetation of this region.

Key words: Climate change; seasonal rainfall trends; ENSO; vegetation

Date received: May 23, 2001

Copyright © 2001 by the author(s). The author(s) of this document and the organizers of the conference have granted their consent to include this abstract in Atlas Conferences Inc. Document # cahr-16.