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International Conference on Statistics, Combinatorics and Related Areas and the Eighth International Conference of Forum for Interdisciplinary Mathematics
December 19-21, 2001
School of Mathematics and Applied Statistics, University of Wollongong
Wollongong, NSW, Australia

Organizers
Satya N. Mishra (University of South Alabama), Chandra M. Gulati (University of Wollongong)

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Life Expectancies for Hiv-Infected Individuals: A Multi-Stage Model
by
Lynne Billard
University of Georgia

The financial impact of the AIDS epidemic on the insurance industry has so far only been investigated on a broad basis. Because HIV infected persons experience increased mortality, it may not be appropriate to use existing tables for calculating their premiums and reserves. This work develops expressions for insurance functions useful for actuarial calculations for HIV- infected persons. This is achieved through a multi-stage process. The model assumes individuals can die (ie non-AIDS death) at a Poisson rate, or may become HIV-infected and hence be diagnosed as having AIDS at a Weibull-distributed rate (or related rate). Expressions for the probability that given an individual starts in some stage i, s/he is in stage j at some later time t, and hence the corresponding conditional expected numbers in each stage at time t, are derived. Some numerical results are given to illustrate.

Date received: December 2, 2001

Copyright © 2001 by the author(s). The author(s) of this document and the organizers of the conference have granted their consent to include this abstract in Atlas Conferences Inc. Document # caim-21.