Rapid Environmental Changes and Civilisation Collapse: Can We Learn from Them?
by
Suzanne Leroy
Brunel University, West London, UK

In trying to measure the changes of our present environment, we use a series of monitoring schemes. However these instrumental records are often based on data ranging over the last 100--200 years only. If we want to set up preparedness measures, we need to know the full range of possible changes. Hence it becomes crucial to look back in time and see how rapidly, even catastrophically, the environment can change and affect societies.

J.~Diamond uses five criteria to analyse the causes of societal collapse: environmental damage, climatic change, society's relations with hostile neighbours, relations with friendly societies and people's cultural response. A convergence of several of these causes will enhance the disaster extent. It seems that three factors need to be considered when analysing human recovery: the temporal scale (longer than the food storage capacity), the spatial scale (large area leaving nowhere to escape) and the cultural response (freedom to innovate). We shall examine collapses such as the Norse settlements in Greenland, Easter Island, the Mayas and the Early Byzantine period. We will draw examples from our own research, especially on the effect of earthquakes on the environment.

Geo-scientists and Historians also contribute by examining together how people have responded to those changes. Some societies have collapsed, others have revived. Some societies have then gone on doing exactly the same things without learning from the experience; others have modified their behaviours and successfully adapted to changes. According to J.~Diamond, a group of people may make the wrong decisions by failure 1) to anticipate the problem before the problem actually arrives; 2) to perceive a problem when it actually arrives; 3) to try to solve it; and 4) to succeed to solve it.

If we turn now to more recent examples of environmental catastrophes, we do not seem to learn from them in most cases. In Istanbul after the Izmit 1999 earthquake and with the very high probability of an earthquake before long, the 12 million inhabitant city is still expanding and too often without the respect of anti-seismic building regulation. After the earthquake and the tsunami of the Indian Ocean in 2005, international help aims at rebuilding villages and replanting fields exactly where they were.

What are the mechanisms through which a society learns from the disasters of past catastrophes? Ancient societies could declare a land impure and create a myth that would keep people away. In the XXIst century, we must try to find modern solutions with politicians closely working with scientists. Maybe solutions such as the creation of nature parks and the voluntary movement of people could be examined and would be beneficial in the long run.

Date received: July 1, 2005

Copyright © 2005 by the author(s). The author(s) of this document and the organizers of the conference have granted their consent to include this abstract in Atlas Conferences Inc. Document # caqy-21.