Natural Disasters in the Past and in our Super-Vulnerable Present-to-Future
by
Nils-Axel Mörner
Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, S-26995 Torekov, Sweden

The global warming scenario has put the focus on artificial computer worries instead of real natural disasters. The recent M 9.3 earthquake off Sumatra and its disastrous tsunami event brutally took us back to reality.

Flooding, draught, volcanism and seismic events with related effects like tsunamis, slides and mudflow are natural disasters that have seriously affected not only individuals but also whole cultures. With a remarkable stubbornness people have moved back and re-started their work, only soon again to suffer a new disaster (the slope of Mt.~Etna, high-seismic risk areas, etc).

Our hazard prediction must be anchored in paleo-records; seismicity in paleoseismicity, tsunamis in paleo-tsunamis, etc. The Kozani earthquake in Greece and Kobe earthquake in Japan may have come as a surprise on the basis of instrumental records, in paleoseismology, however, there was no surprise (the records of paleo-events being plentiful). The new INQUA intensity scale is a powerful tool for the bridging of the gap between seismology and paleoseismology.

Some areas have strongly discontinuous hazard from deglacial to present day conditions. Areas of strong glacial isostatic uplift (Fennoscandia, Scotland, Canada, etc) experienced a very high seismic activity at the time of deglaciation, whilst they, today, have a low to moderately low seismic activity. This novel understanding has to be incorporated in long-term hazard predictions like in the case of the stability of high-level nuclear waste storage sites.

Tsunamis are frequently reported from the Pacific. They must, however, also be expected for the Indian Ocean, the Atlantic and other water bodies, too. The December 26 event is by now a notorious example. Both in Sri Lanka and in the Maldives, we have records of past tsunami events. In Sweden, I have dug up, at least, 15 tsunami events in the last 13,000 years. The famous Lisbon 1755 earthquake and tsunami was not a single event. There are records of previous events, too, implying that the likelihood of new events is high.

Today, however, we have built a new world, which is exceptionally vulnerable to disasters. Our cities have grown to mega-cities. The communications systems are overloaded. Our shores are full of houses and our beaches full of people. A new Lisbon event would, today, have terrible effects. Our preparations are minimal, still the event will come ``sooner or later''.

Our Planet Earth is full of ``ticking-down'' bombs. Our attention must concentrate on these issues. We must not allow for further distraction on the political elephantiasis of ``global warming''. I urge for an immediate return ``to the real World''.

What was terrible disasters in the past, will re-occur in the present-to-future. It will, however, hit us stronger and worse now because we have built our society and culture in ways that are so much more vulnerable to disasters than they were before.

Date received: July 6, 2005

Copyright © 2005 by the author(s). The author(s) of this document and the organizers of the conference have granted their consent to include this abstract in Atlas Conferences Inc. Document # caqy-23.