Dark Nature: Examples from Italy
by
Leonello Serva
APAT (Italian Agency for Environment Protection and Technical Services), via Vitaliano Brancati 48, 00144 Roma
Coauthors: V. Comerci, F. Fumanti

The modern scientific progress has often generated the illusion that the contemporary man might be able to put natural phenomena under control. In fact, our society appears more vulnerable today than in the past to the "dark nature" events.

Italy has experienced several disasters such as extreme volcanic eruptions and strong earthquakes.

In the last 60000 yrs giant ignimbritic eruptions occurred in the still active Campanian vulcanic area (53.000 yr B.P. Ischia Green Tuff, 39.000 yr B.P. Campanian Ignimbrite, and 15.000 yr B.P. Phlegraean Fields Yellow Tuff). The Campanian Ignimbrite produced 300 Km3 of pyroclastic deposits over an area of 30.000 Km2. An inferred thickness of ca.  ~ 1 cm covered the whole Eurasian continent. Although not likely to occur, the impact of such eruptions today would be terrible both in regional and global scales, probably leading to climatic changes. Moreover, in the Campanian volcanic area also a subplinian eruption (such as the one occurred in 1631 and highly probable at mid-short term), because of an indiscriminate urbanization (3.000.000 people live in the 30 km radius of Vesuvius volcano with a population density up to 15.000 people per Km2), would be absolutely disastrous in terms of victims and impact on the nation economy.

Not only volcanic activity could be de-stabilizing for the national socio-economy. Indeed during the historical period the Italian territory was struck several times by catastrophic earthquakes, with ruinous consequences on the Society. An example, in Northern Italy, is the event of January 3, 1117. Verona was severely damaged and numerous Romanesque churches were destroyed and never reconstructed. The impact of that earthquake on the society and the culture of that time was so relevant that it became a chronological point of reference to date other social events.

If the earthquakes besides being strong, are also frequent, the consequences may be even more terrible. In the span of time between 1688 and 1706 (19 years), along the whole Italian territory, 14 events (Intensity VIII-XI MCS) occurred with a nearly annual rate: Romagna 1688, Sannio 1688, Carinzia 1690, Ancona 1690, Val di Noto 1693, Irpinia 1694, Asolo 1695, Bagnoregio 1695, Carnia 1700, Benevento 1702, Norcia 1703, Montereale 1703, L'Aquila 1703 and Maiella 1706. Closer to present time, another sequence of damaging earthquakes (Intensity VIII-XI MCS) started in 1915 and ended in 1920. 6 destructive events took place in the Central and Northern Apennines: Avezzano 1915, Monterchi 1917, Santa Sofia 1918, Mugello 1919, Piancastagnaio 1919 and Garfagnana 1920. It is easy to infer that if analogous sequences were to occur today in Italy, their impact would be devastating in terms of victims and economic loss.

We believe therefore we should waste no more time and start soon a serious prevention program to make safe the Italian territory.

Date received: July 25, 2005

Copyright © 2005 by the author(s). The author(s) of this document and the organizers of the conference have granted their consent to include this abstract in Atlas Conferences Inc. Document # caqy-62.