Climate changes during the Holocene as a key to forecast impact of greenhouse effect on the climate of the Mediterranean Region
by
Arie S. Issar
Prof. Em, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Sede Boker Campus, Israel

The investigations carried out by the author on climate changes during the Holocene and their impact on the paleo-environments, were found to be an important key for predicting the impact of climate changes in the future on the availability of water resources in this region. These investigations included a general survey of the climate dependent records in the Mediterranean region as well as historical and archaeological records on the expansion and retreat of settlements in the desert.

Correlating the co-variations of these time series renders a new time-stratigraphic division of the Holocene in this region.

The most significant conclusion is that in the case of global warming, the Mediterranean region, which is dominated during the winter by the westerlies will become drier. Thus lower rates of precipitation and longer periods of droughts are the forecast for the countries bordering the Mediterranean, especially those in its southern domain. The monsoon areas will become more humid benefiting rivers, like the Nile, emerging from these areas. Since the end of the Tertiary, higher Nile levels meant a higher supply of sands to the eastern coasts of the Mediterranean. This supply was augmented, most probably by the erosion of the Nile delta due to high sea levels, as a result of the deglaciation. In the case of the greenhouse effect, one can forecast that the abundance of water in the Nile, may also mean a higher rate of siltation of Lake Nasser.

Date received: January 30, 2002