Estimation of Underreporting of Infant Deaths through Reliability Model: An Indian Experience
by
Niyati Joshi
International Institute for Population Sciences (Deemed University),Govandi Station Road,Deonar,Mumbai-400088
Coauthors: Alka Chaudhary,Department of Statistics, Meerut College, C.C.S. University,Meerut,India

Developed countries where most of the infants deaths are biological in nature have better recording and registration processes. Contrastingly in developing societies like India, infant deaths are high due to environmental causes coupled with misconceptions due to lack of knowledge, digit preferences for age data responses and poor registration system for lack of infrastructural and resourceful manpower availability which leads to misreporting/underreporting and non-sampling errors in surveys for data on infant deaths. In this light, this paper is an attempt to fit a reliability model proposed by Mukherji and Islam (1985) for estimating misreporting/underreporting of deaths below the first year of life in two states, Kerala and Uttar Pradesh (India), diametrically opposite on the various demographic indicators especially Infant mortality rate. Data from Indian National Family Health Survey (NFHS)(IIPS, Mumbai) has been utilized to compute infant deaths by computing probability distribution function for Uttar Pradesh and Kerala and fitted into the model. There is a good fit for Kerala compared to Uttar Pradesh. United States Vital Statistics (1960) has also been considered for validation of the results. By examining the distribution of Expected and Observed deaths, we find that there is underreporting/misreporting at different months of age during infancy. The study reveals that there are more environmental problems along with underreporting of infant deaths, digit preference and poor registration system in Uttar Pradesh than Kerala.The study suggests that policy steps should be taken to improve physical environmental conditions and reporting and registration system for infant deaths in Uttar Pradesh.

Date received: November 29, 2004