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Is the Taylor Rule Missing? A Statistical Investigation
by
Walter Enders
University of Alabama
Coauthors: Helle Bunzel (Iowa State University)
We conduct a thorough statistical analysis of the empirical foundations for the existence of a Taylor rule. Inflation, the output gap and the federal funds rate appear to be non-stationary variables that are not cointegrated. Although this lack of cointegration could be caused by missing variables or structural breaks, we are unable to ‘salvage’ the rule using several plausible candidate variables and break dates. We also investigate the possibility that the Taylor rule should be modeled as a nonlinear relationship. We find that a simple threshold model makes significant progress towards rectifying some of the shortcomings of the standard model.
Date received: October 2, 2005
Copyright © 2005 by the author(s). The author(s) of this document and the organizers of the conference have granted their consent to include this abstract in Atlas Conferences Inc. Document # carm-08.