When pigs fly - modelling swine flu with a large number of imported cases
by
Geoff Mercer
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University
Coauthors: Katie Glass, Niels Becker, Steve Barry

Real time calculation of the effective reproduction number of a disease is important in determining intervention measures and evaluating their success. A common feature of the recent pandemic H1N1 influenza (swine flu) outbreak around the world was the large number of imported cases before local transmission was established. Previous methods for calculating the effective reproduction number generally give overestimtes particularly early in an outbreak. We develop methods for allowing for these imported cases and apply these to data from both Australia and New Zealand.

Date received: December 17, 2009